Affective Prediction: a very useful mental skill
Human beings have the ability to feel an immense amount of emotions that seize us and condition them when making any kind of decision. When these emotions happen in the past, they can be so intensely recorded that we can remember them no matter how much time passes. But what about future emotions?
Some studies have tried to study our ability to determine future emotions, granting the concept of affective prediction . In this article we will talk about this skill, as well as the specific factors and possible applications.
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What is affective prediction?
Affective prediction or affective prognosis is a term that is used within psychology to define the ability of people to make predictions about their affect or future emotional state and the consequences of these.
The term was coined by psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert in the wake of their research about this ability. While early research focused only on the measurement of emotional predictions, later studies began to examine the accuracy and prediction of these predictions.
A limited mental ability
The results revealed that people we are tremendously clumsy when trying to predict our emotional states . Due to the large amount of cognitive biases we have, such as targeting, the empathy gap and the impact bias, we are virtually unable to determine exactly how, when and how intensely we will experience our emotions in the future.
The reason is that feelings experienced in the present interfere and blind us when making decisions in the future, at which time we may feel very different from how we think we will do it.
We can find an example when asking people how they think they would feel if they won the lottery. Most likely, people overestimate positive future feelings, ignoring a large number of factors that can influence their emotional state outside of the fact that they have won the lottery.
However, studies revealed that people were able to predict the affective valence of their future emotions. That is, we know if a future action or event will be positive or not. As well we are good at identifying the emotions we will have ; for example, knowing that we will feel happy after a compliment.
However, these predictions are not always correct. That is, people do not guess about their future emotions in 100% of cases. In the same way, we are much less precise when trying to predict the intensity and duration of our future emotions.
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What aspects of emotion can we predict?
The affective prediction can be divided into four components or factors for which people have greater or lesser predictability. These factors are:
- The affective valence .
- The specific emotion experienced.
- The intensity of emotions.
- The duration of emotions.
1. Affective Valencia
In psychology it is known as affective valence the emotional value we give to a person, object or situation . In the specific case of affective prediction, it is manifested in the ability to know if a person or event will report positive or negative emotions. Whatever they are.
Studies reveal that people are very skilled at predicting this factor, which means that we are quite clear about what things generate positive emotions and value them as such, and what other things provoke negative emotions and produce feelings of aversion.
2. Specific emotions
Predicting valence is not enough. In addition to this, people feel the need to know exactly what specific emotions we experience with certain situations or people.
Generally, we have the ability to predict our specific emotions most of the time. We are aware of what circumstances make us happy and what others generate feelings of anguish, fear or anxiety.
However, this is not always easy since many times we can experience a mixture of emotions that they do not always seem to be compatible . For example, if we find a good job offer, but this is abroad, we can feel happy and excited to start a new life and have a good job, but on the other hand we can feel a little sad to have to leave our family and friends.
3. Intensity and duration of emotions
Finally, the third factor studied in Wilson and Gilbert's research was the ability of people to predict the intensity of emotions, as well as their duration.
The results determined that we can accurately predict both the affective valence and the specific emotions we will experience in the future. However, in terms of the ability to predict the intensity and duration of emotions, the data reveal that we are not so skilful.
The research showed that people we tend to overestimate the duration of our future emotional reactions , phenomenon that is known as durability bias. In the same way, when we try to predict how intense our emotions will be, we also fall into the error of overestimating this intensity. In this case the error is due to an impact bias.
What applications can you have?
Although the affective prognosis has been studied mostly within the field of psychology, there are many other areas such as economic, legal, the field of medical care or happiness research
An example of the application of the studies of affective prediction, in a field other than psychology, is found in the interest shown by legal theorists in the tendency that we manifest to underestimate our ability to adapt to events that involve a change in our life, since this makes them question the assumptions that lie behind compensation for damages .
In the same way, this capacity is also currently being studied by health theorists or analysts, since most of the crucial decisions that are made about health depend on the patient's perception of their future quality of life.
